Thompson leads in SC, closing in in Iowa and Florida

Former Tennessee U.S. Senator Fred Thompson is now leading the presidential Run for the Roses in the Republican column in South Carolina. This is not the new news, however; the new bit of information is coming from a Newsweek poll out this week: Thompson's horse is closing the gap with former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney in the important starting post state of Iowa. The shocker: after months of tough retail politics and millions upon millions of dollars, Romney's lead is loosening.

Newsweek's numbers: Romney 24, Thompson 16, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani 13 and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee 12. At their peaks, Romney was at 31, Giulani at 28.

The point: if Thompson steals this race from Romney and places a respectable third in New Hampshire, Romney and Giuliani's regional home territory, then Thompson is in position to have the "big mo" (momentum) by winning South Carolina.

South Carolina has been the burial ground of many GOP contenders during the last 25 years. Pat Robertson and Jack Kemp lost here in 1988 and John McCain's Straight Talk Express was derailed in 2000; Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Bush 1 and Bush 2 left their competitors in the dust of South Carolina and went on to defeat their Democrat rivals.

So, again, if Thompson wins Iowa and then South Carolina, his big mo may be unstoppable going into Super Tuesday, the Southern Primary.

The Newsweek Iowa numbers also look good for Thompson in the strong support (1st number)/not strong support or leaning (2nd number):
Thompson 39/61
Romney 26/74
Giuliani 22/78

Why is this significant? A strong commitment is needed to take part in the Iowa Caucus where voters have to, at times, literally show up to vote then take a stand, even explaining their position--all during the middle of a cold, windy Iowa winter.

So not only is Thompson closing the gap in Iowa, he is within striking distance in the Sunshine state, Florida, where the 2000 race was decided.

Standing beside Thompson recently was the popular GOP governor Charlie Crist. Thompson's travels in Florida and growing support has quickly and surprisingly brought him to within striking distance at 6.7 points from Giuliani.

If Thompson captures Iowa, South Carolina and Florida, then he has the starting post, the critical middle junction and the clincher wrapped up in the GOP presidential Run for the Roses. With no "newt" comers in sight (Newt Gingrich, through his spokeman, has said that he would not be running), then the triple crown of Iowa, South Carolina and Florida would allow Thompson to fly through this race, though it is still over 13 months away.

And still, many doors remain to be knocked, phones to be worked over and flesh to be pressed.

But as in sports, momentum is key and Thompson may get that illusive GOP presidential key--we'll see! What do you say?!