Former Tennessee U.S. Senator Fred Thompson is now leading the presidential Run for the Roses in the Republican column in South Carolina. This is not the new news, however; the new bit of information is coming from a Newsweek poll out this week: Thompson's horse is closing the gap with former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney in the important starting post state of Iowa. The shocker: after months of tough retail politics and millions upon millions of dollars, Romney's lead is loosening.
Newsweek's numbers: Romney 24, Thompson 16, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani 13 and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee 12. At their peaks, Romney was at 31, Giulani at 28.
The point: if Thompson steals this race from Romney and places a respectable third in New Hampshire, Romney and Giuliani's regional home territory, then Thompson is in position to have the "big mo" (momentum) by winning South Carolina.
South Carolina has been the burial ground of many GOP contenders during the last 25 years. Pat Robertson and Jack Kemp lost here in 1988 and John McCain's Straight Talk Express was derailed in 2000; Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Bush 1 and Bush 2 left their competitors in the dust of South Carolina and went on to defeat their Democrat rivals.
So, again, if Thompson wins Iowa and then South Carolina, his big mo may be unstoppable going into Super Tuesday, the Southern Primary.
The Newsweek Iowa numbers also look good for Thompson in the strong support (1st number)/not strong support or leaning (2nd number):
Thompson 39/61
Romney 26/74
Giuliani 22/78
Why is this significant? A strong commitment is needed to take part in the Iowa Caucus where voters have to, at times, literally show up to vote then take a stand, even explaining their position--all during the middle of a cold, windy Iowa winter.
So not only is Thompson closing the gap in Iowa, he is within striking distance in the Sunshine state, Florida, where the 2000 race was decided.
Standing beside Thompson recently was the popular GOP governor Charlie Crist. Thompson's travels in Florida and growing support has quickly and surprisingly brought him to within striking distance at 6.7 points from Giuliani.
If Thompson captures Iowa, South Carolina and Florida, then he has the starting post, the critical middle junction and the clincher wrapped up in the GOP presidential Run for the Roses. With no "newt" comers in sight (Newt Gingrich, through his spokeman, has said that he would not be running), then the triple crown of Iowa, South Carolina and Florida would allow Thompson to fly through this race, though it is still over 13 months away.
And still, many doors remain to be knocked, phones to be worked over and flesh to be pressed.
But as in sports, momentum is key and Thompson may get that illusive GOP presidential key--we'll see! What do you say?!
Sep 7, 2007
Presidential Run for the Roses: Presumptive Nominee, then and now--Hillary Clinton
Since the day I heard the report that Hillary Clinton had shared her goal to a confidant in 1994 that she would run for president, I knew that she was going to be a force of political nature in presidential politics.
Many books have been written, two during the summer by liberal authors, including New York Times legend Carl Berstein, A Woman in Charge: The Life of Hillary Rodham Clinton, who noted her and Bill Clinton's plan back in the 70s of running for president--she would follow after he won two terms. The plan continues to be methodically applied; her blue eyes are on the presidential prize.
Hillary Clinton could have been the Democrat nominee in 2004 but she depthly chose the high road by going for elective experience. After U.S. Sen. John Kerry's narrow loss, she became the go-to-person. A shining star came up--U.S. Sen. Barack Obama--to distract the Democrats. Apparently, he is now a shooting star, a bright but short-lived show.
To many, Clinton has become a powerful, foreboding force on both sides of the political aisle. Republicans love and fear a Hillary Clinton nomination; some are deeply afraid of a Clinton win, others are confident of a Democrat loss if Clinton were nominated.
According to political guru, Karl Rove, President George W. Bush's political point man, Clinton has the highest negative for a presidential candidate in the history of polling (USA Today/Gallup survey in August of 1012 Americans--49% had an unfavorable impression of her and only 47% favorable). Also, about half of the electorate see her negatively and according to a recent hot/cold Gallup polling measure, they do not feel warmth toward her coldness (Obama wins the warmth numbers). Even in her own party, many view her negatively.
With all the negativity, will she even win her own party's nomination? Yes, whether voters like her or not, she has to be reckoned with and her unswerving determination to be the Democrat nominee will not be derailed. The Clintons will raise a record-breaking amount, along with positive, almost fawning, coverage by the elite media that stacks the stakes for her horse in the presidential run for the roses. (Few in the media, will speak negatively against her on the record or even have guests that are invited to speak negatively of her. Last year, another best selling book authored by a self-proclaimed longtime liberal was shunned by the media--only two had him as guest in all of television and cable, Sean Hannity of Fox News and Lou Dobbs of CNN.)
Finally, being from the Kentucky Derby state, having lived a few miles from Churchill Downs, I believe U.S. Senator and former First Lady, Hillary Clinton, against all the negativity, against all odds, against Rove's prediction and against a GOP nominee of Rudy Giuliani or Fred Thompson, has better than even odds to win the American presidential run for the roses of 2008.
What do you say about that?
Many books have been written, two during the summer by liberal authors, including New York Times legend Carl Berstein, A Woman in Charge: The Life of Hillary Rodham Clinton, who noted her and Bill Clinton's plan back in the 70s of running for president--she would follow after he won two terms. The plan continues to be methodically applied; her blue eyes are on the presidential prize.
Hillary Clinton could have been the Democrat nominee in 2004 but she depthly chose the high road by going for elective experience. After U.S. Sen. John Kerry's narrow loss, she became the go-to-person. A shining star came up--U.S. Sen. Barack Obama--to distract the Democrats. Apparently, he is now a shooting star, a bright but short-lived show.
To many, Clinton has become a powerful, foreboding force on both sides of the political aisle. Republicans love and fear a Hillary Clinton nomination; some are deeply afraid of a Clinton win, others are confident of a Democrat loss if Clinton were nominated.
According to political guru, Karl Rove, President George W. Bush's political point man, Clinton has the highest negative for a presidential candidate in the history of polling (USA Today/Gallup survey in August of 1012 Americans--49% had an unfavorable impression of her and only 47% favorable). Also, about half of the electorate see her negatively and according to a recent hot/cold Gallup polling measure, they do not feel warmth toward her coldness (Obama wins the warmth numbers). Even in her own party, many view her negatively.
With all the negativity, will she even win her own party's nomination? Yes, whether voters like her or not, she has to be reckoned with and her unswerving determination to be the Democrat nominee will not be derailed. The Clintons will raise a record-breaking amount, along with positive, almost fawning, coverage by the elite media that stacks the stakes for her horse in the presidential run for the roses. (Few in the media, will speak negatively against her on the record or even have guests that are invited to speak negatively of her. Last year, another best selling book authored by a self-proclaimed longtime liberal was shunned by the media--only two had him as guest in all of television and cable, Sean Hannity of Fox News and Lou Dobbs of CNN.)
Finally, being from the Kentucky Derby state, having lived a few miles from Churchill Downs, I believe U.S. Senator and former First Lady, Hillary Clinton, against all the negativity, against all odds, against Rove's prediction and against a GOP nominee of Rudy Giuliani or Fred Thompson, has better than even odds to win the American presidential run for the roses of 2008.
What do you say about that?
Presidential Run for the Roses: Thompson in--finally!
After months of testing the waters and the patience of many Republicans, former U.S. Senator Fred Thompson finally made his presidential run for the roses official.
Some say it is too late. Others say the race is already crowded. Still others believe he got in just in the nick of time.
Thompson responded by saying that he is not running a conventional insider campaign. He is an outsider, saying on NBC's Jay Leno, "I don't think people are going to say, 'You know, that guy would make a very good president but he just didn't get in soon enough.'"
If Thompson survives the expected character assassinations (including accusations of laziness, lacking the fire,) then conservatives may have an electable and consistent conservative, who is an accomplished actor, possesses magnetism and able to defeat the "mother" of all liberals--Hillary Clinton.
According to a recent AP story, former president Bill Clinton remarked about Thompson on CNN's Larry King, "he has a certain swagger," "he is smart. And he knows what to say and how to say it, to appeal to a certain big swath of the American electorate."
Was it smart for him to skip the New Hampshire Republican debate for the Leno show? Some say that this single act offended the sensibilities of New Hampshire Republicans. Frankly, it may have shown some political shrewdness by appearing on a cable ad immediately prior to the start of the debate broadcasted by Fox News, then showing up on Jay Leno later that night. On this night, Thompson seemed to show a persona that is above the fray and the bickering, at least for now.
According to the new campaign Web site, Thompson's message is for a stronger, more prosperous and unified America.
In his upcoming trip to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, then the Sept. 27 GOP debate in Baltimore, he must show himself a leader, commanding the issues and his competitors, a tall order for even the Law and Order prosecutor.
In South Carolina he is leading the pack. Thompson is one point ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudolph "Rudy" Giullani, according to last week's Gallup poll. If he starts pulling away in South Carolina and tying former Governor Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, Thompson may face the presumptive Democrat nominee for president, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY. More on Sen. Clinton in my next blog.
My question, do you think Thompson will survive September? And if he does, does he takeover the presidential run for the roses for the GOP?
Some say it is too late. Others say the race is already crowded. Still others believe he got in just in the nick of time.
Thompson responded by saying that he is not running a conventional insider campaign. He is an outsider, saying on NBC's Jay Leno, "I don't think people are going to say, 'You know, that guy would make a very good president but he just didn't get in soon enough.'"
If Thompson survives the expected character assassinations (including accusations of laziness, lacking the fire,) then conservatives may have an electable and consistent conservative, who is an accomplished actor, possesses magnetism and able to defeat the "mother" of all liberals--Hillary Clinton.
According to a recent AP story, former president Bill Clinton remarked about Thompson on CNN's Larry King, "he has a certain swagger," "he is smart. And he knows what to say and how to say it, to appeal to a certain big swath of the American electorate."
Was it smart for him to skip the New Hampshire Republican debate for the Leno show? Some say that this single act offended the sensibilities of New Hampshire Republicans. Frankly, it may have shown some political shrewdness by appearing on a cable ad immediately prior to the start of the debate broadcasted by Fox News, then showing up on Jay Leno later that night. On this night, Thompson seemed to show a persona that is above the fray and the bickering, at least for now.
According to the new campaign Web site, Thompson's message is for a stronger, more prosperous and unified America.
In his upcoming trip to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, then the Sept. 27 GOP debate in Baltimore, he must show himself a leader, commanding the issues and his competitors, a tall order for even the Law and Order prosecutor.
In South Carolina he is leading the pack. Thompson is one point ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudolph "Rudy" Giullani, according to last week's Gallup poll. If he starts pulling away in South Carolina and tying former Governor Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, Thompson may face the presumptive Democrat nominee for president, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY. More on Sen. Clinton in my next blog.
My question, do you think Thompson will survive September? And if he does, does he takeover the presidential run for the roses for the GOP?
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