Presidential Run for the Roses: The GOP (Part 4)

Who will continue Reagan's conservative race? Thompson or Romney

Leader of the pack: Fred Thompson

As I look at today's news, the presidential horse race is heating up. According to Zogby International, the national preference vote is now led by former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson on the Republican column and U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democrats. Discussion of the Democrats will follow the response of news reports of the Republicans.

Tough, tall Law and Order prosecutor Thompson is now trailing no one. His non-candidate presidential bid is bringing in cash and votes in a noted national preference poll. The Tennessean's eight year U.S. Senate experience, his Watergate background, as well as his acting role on NBC's hit show has conservatives longing for his horse to get in the starting gate. Will he throw in his hat in the ring to join the presidential run for the roses?

Every indication says "yes." Why the delay? As reported, it is either to prepare responses to predicted attacks or massage his message. Both Republican and Democrat opposition researchers are poring over his Senate record which is stored in 400 boxes at the University of Tennessee's Howard Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy. What have they found?

We've seen mostly a conservative record but also some nuanced answers by Thompson. For example, he is pro-life but will not apply an abortion "litmus test" on judges. While Thompson voted for legislation to ban "partial-birth abortion" and to prohibit federal funding of abortions (except in cases of rape, incest or when the life of the mother is in danger), he also told the conservative Eagle Forum in a 1994 questionnaire, "I do not believe abortion should be criminalized. This battle will be won in the hearts and souls of the American people" (from www.newsmax.com/archives/articles).

The Newsmax article continues: "In a candidate survey the same year for The Tennessean newspaper, Thompson said that states should have the right to impose "reasonable restrictions on abortions such as parental notification . . . The ultimate decision on abortion should be left with the woman and not the government." For more information, including actual statements by Thompson, view http://www.youtube.com/ and type Fred Thompson.

Perhaps, Thompson's conservative supporters may be troubled by this final excerpt from the Newsmax article: "Earlier this month, the Los Angeles Times reported that Thompson was retained by an abortion rights group, the National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Association, to lobby the administration of President George H.W. Bush to ease a regulation that prevented clinics that received federal money from offering any abortion counseling." Thompson may be able to set the record straight via direct meetings with conservative leaders.

Conservative concerns may be answered by Thompson as political posturing given the realities of the Roe v. Wade precedent and future media attacks. Also, upon research, the Washington Post has found Thompson's close connection with trial lawyers, a group which vehemently opposes tort reform, another important GOP issue. Still another concern about Thompson is his "nay" vote on one of two impeachment charges against President Clinton. He was one of a handful of Republican senators that effectively voted to acquit Clinton.

So conservatives should ask for clarity from Thompson on these critical issues. Supporters may argue that if Thompson was completely candid, he could become a bigger target. Perhaps, behind-the-door assurances to key conservative leaders may suffice. To avoid deep disappointment, conservatives should vet this candidate on several fronts. Time is still on his side, as well as the conservative movement.

Thompson leads state polls in Georgia and Virginia, as well as the national preference poll of likely voters and has recently received supportive words from another possible presidential candidate--Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House. As implied in the Newsmax.com article, Newt's horse may stay at the starting gate if his issues are carried by another capable conservative.

Yet, criticism lingers that Thompson did not accomplish much during his eight year stint in the U.S. Senate. Some conservative leaders also claimed that he didn't lead on these issues except for the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform--which both conservative and liberal PACS despise. Newsmax's Ron Kessler also submitted an article recently demonstrating Thompson's lack luster efforts at political campaigning. If Hillary Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee for president, then it would be a take no prisoner type of horse race. Does Thompson really want the job? We soon shall see!

Romney runs and runs

One GOP candidate that has been running hard is former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Romney, according to the Zogby poll, is 3rd behind Giuliani (21%) and Thompson (22%). His 11% puts him at a distant third but ahead of fading McCain (9%). His vigorous campaign style and articulate disposition give him an uphill battle, but a fighting chance. He is second behind Thompson among "very conservative" voters. If Giuliani drops a horse shoe due to his left-of-center political and moral political and personal values, then Romney would be fighting for the largest GOP voting block.

Romney's enduring and vigorous effort has born some fruit. He has tied more recently Rudy Giuliani as GOP frontrunner according to the latest poll by the National Journal's Hotline Website of political insiders (see newsmax.com/archives/2007). Hotline noted that this surge reflects Romney's strength in early caucas and primary states Iowa and New Hampshire.

Will Romney's personal dynamism, proven leadership background (the Olympics in Utah) and budget savviness (in Massachusetts) overcome his conflicting positions--first pro-choice, then pro-life; first pro-gay, now pro-traditional marriage and other issues? The conventional wisdom is that Romney had to position himself as pro-woman and gay rights in order to run credible campaigns in the very blue state of Massachusetts from 1994-2002. Yet isn't he trying to position himself as a conservative to vie for the conservative voters, especially in the South, particularly South Carolina? His recent repositioning, according to Romney, occured in 2004 when he became pro-life and against embryonic stem cell research. But isn't 2004 the year to prepare running for the 2008 presidential election. The http://www.youtube.com/ excerpts of his changing positions are very credible, since you can see Romney, state his positions with conviction, only to change them.

Romney's political convictions may have changed but religious conservatives are troubled with his permanent Mormon religious beliefs. Both concerns may diminish Romney's rising star.

Positively, Romney's numbers have increased gradually, but will they continue to go up if Thompson jumps in the widening run for the roses?

The two apparently are vying for the same conservative constituents; both making the case that he will carry the Reagan mantle. Romney's test is the Thompson juggernaut. Who will carry the social conservatives all the way to the primary finish line and receive the GOP rose?

Both have gravitas but only one will carry the conservative vote. Romney may be the steady and credible sounding conservative; Thompson has a longer and broader conservative track record and is exciting the conservative electorate.

From this vantage point, Thompson looks to be the winner of this neck-to-neck conservative race--only if he jumps in.

Which horse is your choice, if any?