Much like Davy Crocket, Jim Bowie and Col. William Travis, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton will make her last stand on similar terrain. After 10 consecutive losses and an uneventful debate performance, Clinton is also facing great odds in the Lone Star state.
Though the polls indicate a dead heat, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama has the “big mo,” mimicking the power of General Santa Anna, the Alamo’s eventual victor. Obama’s momentum seems insurmountable. Former President Bill Clinton, has said that his wife has to win Texas. Can she still win this state and the nomination?
Media prognosticators from left to right are already writing her political obituary: “Hillary Should Get Out Now,” said Jonathan Alter of Newsweek and “Who Will Tell Hillary?” asked Robert Novak of the Chicago Sun Times.
According to Real Clear Politics, it is a statistical tie — Clinton and Obama splitting four current polls. Clinton’s home state, Arkansas, is a close neighbor to Texas, so Clinton’s familiar face may be the one advantage she has left — and it may be enough.
Hillary can still win in one of three ways: 1) a successful last stand in Texas and future wins in a few big states; 2) seating of Michigan and Florida delegates; or 3) in a brokered convention, persuading super delegates to nominate her, thus, snatching the win from the jaws of defeat.
Clinton will need everything from tears to toughness, maternal instincts to meanness to win the next three big states (Texas, Ohio, Penn.) by even slim margins. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, she leads by 8 and 14 percentage points respectively. From these three states, Clinton can win most of 577 combined delegates, which would reshape the delegate race. Currently Obama has at 1,351 and Clinton for 1,262.
Another way of avoiding political ruination for Clinton emanates from the fluxed fate of the Florida and Michigan delegates.
Clinton won both states in questionable circumstances but by wide margins. If those delegates are seated, Clinton’s deficit to Obama would immediately close. A decision on those delegates, however, does not seem likely in the near future.
The Clinton camp would like to see them instated outright, which may happen if the Obama agrees to a compromise.
In any event, if the Clinton machine can reinstate those delegates, the race is once again summarily changed.
Finally, the last and least attractive scenario involves the unique concept of the Democrat Convention’s 796 super delegates. If neither Democrat candidate has the necessary 2,025 delegates by the convention, these super delegates will be the deciding factor.
With the power of the Clinton name within the Democrat Party, many of those super delegates could be swayed Clinton’s direction. Even if Obama goes into the convention with a slight lead in the popular vote and delegate count, Clinton may have the influence to overturn the will of the Democrat electorate and take the nomination.
Of course, that would be the least attractive avenue for winning and would require a major effort to reconcile and heal the party’s divergent interests and interest groups.
Crockett, Bowie and Travis lost at the Alamo during the Lonestar state’s decisive drive for Texas Independence. Hillary has a chance to reverse history by winning in Texas against the likes of Mexican Gen. Santa Anna, the Napoleon of the West. The general she’s fighting — Barack Obama — who is overseeing a new political army, however, is much more polite, polished and dynamic.
The Santa Anna winds seem to be blowing Obama’s way, but Clinton cannot be counted out.
Showing posts with label 2008 presidential race. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008 presidential race. Show all posts
Mar 3, 2008
Sep 7, 2007
Presidential Run for the Roses: Presumptive Nominee, then and now--Hillary Clinton
Since the day I heard the report that Hillary Clinton had shared her goal to a confidant in 1994 that she would run for president, I knew that she was going to be a force of political nature in presidential politics.
Many books have been written, two during the summer by liberal authors, including New York Times legend Carl Berstein, A Woman in Charge: The Life of Hillary Rodham Clinton, who noted her and Bill Clinton's plan back in the 70s of running for president--she would follow after he won two terms. The plan continues to be methodically applied; her blue eyes are on the presidential prize.
Hillary Clinton could have been the Democrat nominee in 2004 but she depthly chose the high road by going for elective experience. After U.S. Sen. John Kerry's narrow loss, she became the go-to-person. A shining star came up--U.S. Sen. Barack Obama--to distract the Democrats. Apparently, he is now a shooting star, a bright but short-lived show.
To many, Clinton has become a powerful, foreboding force on both sides of the political aisle. Republicans love and fear a Hillary Clinton nomination; some are deeply afraid of a Clinton win, others are confident of a Democrat loss if Clinton were nominated.
According to political guru, Karl Rove, President George W. Bush's political point man, Clinton has the highest negative for a presidential candidate in the history of polling (USA Today/Gallup survey in August of 1012 Americans--49% had an unfavorable impression of her and only 47% favorable). Also, about half of the electorate see her negatively and according to a recent hot/cold Gallup polling measure, they do not feel warmth toward her coldness (Obama wins the warmth numbers). Even in her own party, many view her negatively.
With all the negativity, will she even win her own party's nomination? Yes, whether voters like her or not, she has to be reckoned with and her unswerving determination to be the Democrat nominee will not be derailed. The Clintons will raise a record-breaking amount, along with positive, almost fawning, coverage by the elite media that stacks the stakes for her horse in the presidential run for the roses. (Few in the media, will speak negatively against her on the record or even have guests that are invited to speak negatively of her. Last year, another best selling book authored by a self-proclaimed longtime liberal was shunned by the media--only two had him as guest in all of television and cable, Sean Hannity of Fox News and Lou Dobbs of CNN.)
Finally, being from the Kentucky Derby state, having lived a few miles from Churchill Downs, I believe U.S. Senator and former First Lady, Hillary Clinton, against all the negativity, against all odds, against Rove's prediction and against a GOP nominee of Rudy Giuliani or Fred Thompson, has better than even odds to win the American presidential run for the roses of 2008.
What do you say about that?
Many books have been written, two during the summer by liberal authors, including New York Times legend Carl Berstein, A Woman in Charge: The Life of Hillary Rodham Clinton, who noted her and Bill Clinton's plan back in the 70s of running for president--she would follow after he won two terms. The plan continues to be methodically applied; her blue eyes are on the presidential prize.
Hillary Clinton could have been the Democrat nominee in 2004 but she depthly chose the high road by going for elective experience. After U.S. Sen. John Kerry's narrow loss, she became the go-to-person. A shining star came up--U.S. Sen. Barack Obama--to distract the Democrats. Apparently, he is now a shooting star, a bright but short-lived show.
To many, Clinton has become a powerful, foreboding force on both sides of the political aisle. Republicans love and fear a Hillary Clinton nomination; some are deeply afraid of a Clinton win, others are confident of a Democrat loss if Clinton were nominated.
According to political guru, Karl Rove, President George W. Bush's political point man, Clinton has the highest negative for a presidential candidate in the history of polling (USA Today/Gallup survey in August of 1012 Americans--49% had an unfavorable impression of her and only 47% favorable). Also, about half of the electorate see her negatively and according to a recent hot/cold Gallup polling measure, they do not feel warmth toward her coldness (Obama wins the warmth numbers). Even in her own party, many view her negatively.
With all the negativity, will she even win her own party's nomination? Yes, whether voters like her or not, she has to be reckoned with and her unswerving determination to be the Democrat nominee will not be derailed. The Clintons will raise a record-breaking amount, along with positive, almost fawning, coverage by the elite media that stacks the stakes for her horse in the presidential run for the roses. (Few in the media, will speak negatively against her on the record or even have guests that are invited to speak negatively of her. Last year, another best selling book authored by a self-proclaimed longtime liberal was shunned by the media--only two had him as guest in all of television and cable, Sean Hannity of Fox News and Lou Dobbs of CNN.)
Finally, being from the Kentucky Derby state, having lived a few miles from Churchill Downs, I believe U.S. Senator and former First Lady, Hillary Clinton, against all the negativity, against all odds, against Rove's prediction and against a GOP nominee of Rudy Giuliani or Fred Thompson, has better than even odds to win the American presidential run for the roses of 2008.
What do you say about that?
Presidential Run for the Roses: Thompson in--finally!
After months of testing the waters and the patience of many Republicans, former U.S. Senator Fred Thompson finally made his presidential run for the roses official.
Some say it is too late. Others say the race is already crowded. Still others believe he got in just in the nick of time.
Thompson responded by saying that he is not running a conventional insider campaign. He is an outsider, saying on NBC's Jay Leno, "I don't think people are going to say, 'You know, that guy would make a very good president but he just didn't get in soon enough.'"
If Thompson survives the expected character assassinations (including accusations of laziness, lacking the fire,) then conservatives may have an electable and consistent conservative, who is an accomplished actor, possesses magnetism and able to defeat the "mother" of all liberals--Hillary Clinton.
According to a recent AP story, former president Bill Clinton remarked about Thompson on CNN's Larry King, "he has a certain swagger," "he is smart. And he knows what to say and how to say it, to appeal to a certain big swath of the American electorate."
Was it smart for him to skip the New Hampshire Republican debate for the Leno show? Some say that this single act offended the sensibilities of New Hampshire Republicans. Frankly, it may have shown some political shrewdness by appearing on a cable ad immediately prior to the start of the debate broadcasted by Fox News, then showing up on Jay Leno later that night. On this night, Thompson seemed to show a persona that is above the fray and the bickering, at least for now.
According to the new campaign Web site, Thompson's message is for a stronger, more prosperous and unified America.
In his upcoming trip to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, then the Sept. 27 GOP debate in Baltimore, he must show himself a leader, commanding the issues and his competitors, a tall order for even the Law and Order prosecutor.
In South Carolina he is leading the pack. Thompson is one point ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudolph "Rudy" Giullani, according to last week's Gallup poll. If he starts pulling away in South Carolina and tying former Governor Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, Thompson may face the presumptive Democrat nominee for president, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY. More on Sen. Clinton in my next blog.
My question, do you think Thompson will survive September? And if he does, does he takeover the presidential run for the roses for the GOP?
Some say it is too late. Others say the race is already crowded. Still others believe he got in just in the nick of time.
Thompson responded by saying that he is not running a conventional insider campaign. He is an outsider, saying on NBC's Jay Leno, "I don't think people are going to say, 'You know, that guy would make a very good president but he just didn't get in soon enough.'"
If Thompson survives the expected character assassinations (including accusations of laziness, lacking the fire,) then conservatives may have an electable and consistent conservative, who is an accomplished actor, possesses magnetism and able to defeat the "mother" of all liberals--Hillary Clinton.
According to a recent AP story, former president Bill Clinton remarked about Thompson on CNN's Larry King, "he has a certain swagger," "he is smart. And he knows what to say and how to say it, to appeal to a certain big swath of the American electorate."
Was it smart for him to skip the New Hampshire Republican debate for the Leno show? Some say that this single act offended the sensibilities of New Hampshire Republicans. Frankly, it may have shown some political shrewdness by appearing on a cable ad immediately prior to the start of the debate broadcasted by Fox News, then showing up on Jay Leno later that night. On this night, Thompson seemed to show a persona that is above the fray and the bickering, at least for now.
According to the new campaign Web site, Thompson's message is for a stronger, more prosperous and unified America.
In his upcoming trip to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, then the Sept. 27 GOP debate in Baltimore, he must show himself a leader, commanding the issues and his competitors, a tall order for even the Law and Order prosecutor.
In South Carolina he is leading the pack. Thompson is one point ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudolph "Rudy" Giullani, according to last week's Gallup poll. If he starts pulling away in South Carolina and tying former Governor Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, Thompson may face the presumptive Democrat nominee for president, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY. More on Sen. Clinton in my next blog.
My question, do you think Thompson will survive September? And if he does, does he takeover the presidential run for the roses for the GOP?
Jul 18, 2007
Presidential Run for the Roses: The GOP (Part 4)
Who will continue Reagan's conservative race? Thompson or Romney
Leader of the pack: Fred Thompson
As I look at today's news, the presidential horse race is heating up. According to Zogby International, the national preference vote is now led by former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson on the Republican column and U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democrats. Discussion of the Democrats will follow the response of news reports of the Republicans.
Tough, tall Law and Order prosecutor Thompson is now trailing no one. His non-candidate presidential bid is bringing in cash and votes in a noted national preference poll. The Tennessean's eight year U.S. Senate experience, his Watergate background, as well as his acting role on NBC's hit show has conservatives longing for his horse to get in the starting gate. Will he throw in his hat in the ring to join the presidential run for the roses?
Every indication says "yes." Why the delay? As reported, it is either to prepare responses to predicted attacks or massage his message. Both Republican and Democrat opposition researchers are poring over his Senate record which is stored in 400 boxes at the University of Tennessee's Howard Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy. What have they found?
We've seen mostly a conservative record but also some nuanced answers by Thompson. For example, he is pro-life but will not apply an abortion "litmus test" on judges. While Thompson voted for legislation to ban "partial-birth abortion" and to prohibit federal funding of abortions (except in cases of rape, incest or when the life of the mother is in danger), he also told the conservative Eagle Forum in a 1994 questionnaire, "I do not believe abortion should be criminalized. This battle will be won in the hearts and souls of the American people" (from www.newsmax.com/archives/articles).
The Newsmax article continues: "In a candidate survey the same year for The Tennessean newspaper, Thompson said that states should have the right to impose "reasonable restrictions on abortions such as parental notification . . . The ultimate decision on abortion should be left with the woman and not the government." For more information, including actual statements by Thompson, view http://www.youtube.com/ and type Fred Thompson.
Perhaps, Thompson's conservative supporters may be troubled by this final excerpt from the Newsmax article: "Earlier this month, the Los Angeles Times reported that Thompson was retained by an abortion rights group, the National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Association, to lobby the administration of President George H.W. Bush to ease a regulation that prevented clinics that received federal money from offering any abortion counseling." Thompson may be able to set the record straight via direct meetings with conservative leaders.
Conservative concerns may be answered by Thompson as political posturing given the realities of the Roe v. Wade precedent and future media attacks. Also, upon research, the Washington Post has found Thompson's close connection with trial lawyers, a group which vehemently opposes tort reform, another important GOP issue. Still another concern about Thompson is his "nay" vote on one of two impeachment charges against President Clinton. He was one of a handful of Republican senators that effectively voted to acquit Clinton.
So conservatives should ask for clarity from Thompson on these critical issues. Supporters may argue that if Thompson was completely candid, he could become a bigger target. Perhaps, behind-the-door assurances to key conservative leaders may suffice. To avoid deep disappointment, conservatives should vet this candidate on several fronts. Time is still on his side, as well as the conservative movement.
Thompson leads state polls in Georgia and Virginia, as well as the national preference poll of likely voters and has recently received supportive words from another possible presidential candidate--Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House. As implied in the Newsmax.com article, Newt's horse may stay at the starting gate if his issues are carried by another capable conservative.
Yet, criticism lingers that Thompson did not accomplish much during his eight year stint in the U.S. Senate. Some conservative leaders also claimed that he didn't lead on these issues except for the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform--which both conservative and liberal PACS despise. Newsmax's Ron Kessler also submitted an article recently demonstrating Thompson's lack luster efforts at political campaigning. If Hillary Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee for president, then it would be a take no prisoner type of horse race. Does Thompson really want the job? We soon shall see!
Romney runs and runs
One GOP candidate that has been running hard is former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Romney, according to the Zogby poll, is 3rd behind Giuliani (21%) and Thompson (22%). His 11% puts him at a distant third but ahead of fading McCain (9%). His vigorous campaign style and articulate disposition give him an uphill battle, but a fighting chance. He is second behind Thompson among "very conservative" voters. If Giuliani drops a horse shoe due to his left-of-center political and moral political and personal values, then Romney would be fighting for the largest GOP voting block.
Romney's enduring and vigorous effort has born some fruit. He has tied more recently Rudy Giuliani as GOP frontrunner according to the latest poll by the National Journal's Hotline Website of political insiders (see newsmax.com/archives/2007). Hotline noted that this surge reflects Romney's strength in early caucas and primary states Iowa and New Hampshire.
Will Romney's personal dynamism, proven leadership background (the Olympics in Utah) and budget savviness (in Massachusetts) overcome his conflicting positions--first pro-choice, then pro-life; first pro-gay, now pro-traditional marriage and other issues? The conventional wisdom is that Romney had to position himself as pro-woman and gay rights in order to run credible campaigns in the very blue state of Massachusetts from 1994-2002. Yet isn't he trying to position himself as a conservative to vie for the conservative voters, especially in the South, particularly South Carolina? His recent repositioning, according to Romney, occured in 2004 when he became pro-life and against embryonic stem cell research. But isn't 2004 the year to prepare running for the 2008 presidential election. The http://www.youtube.com/ excerpts of his changing positions are very credible, since you can see Romney, state his positions with conviction, only to change them.
Romney's political convictions may have changed but religious conservatives are troubled with his permanent Mormon religious beliefs. Both concerns may diminish Romney's rising star.
Positively, Romney's numbers have increased gradually, but will they continue to go up if Thompson jumps in the widening run for the roses?
The two apparently are vying for the same conservative constituents; both making the case that he will carry the Reagan mantle. Romney's test is the Thompson juggernaut. Who will carry the social conservatives all the way to the primary finish line and receive the GOP rose?
Both have gravitas but only one will carry the conservative vote. Romney may be the steady and credible sounding conservative; Thompson has a longer and broader conservative track record and is exciting the conservative electorate.
From this vantage point, Thompson looks to be the winner of this neck-to-neck conservative race--only if he jumps in.
Which horse is your choice, if any?
Leader of the pack: Fred Thompson
As I look at today's news, the presidential horse race is heating up. According to Zogby International, the national preference vote is now led by former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson on the Republican column and U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democrats. Discussion of the Democrats will follow the response of news reports of the Republicans.
Tough, tall Law and Order prosecutor Thompson is now trailing no one. His non-candidate presidential bid is bringing in cash and votes in a noted national preference poll. The Tennessean's eight year U.S. Senate experience, his Watergate background, as well as his acting role on NBC's hit show has conservatives longing for his horse to get in the starting gate. Will he throw in his hat in the ring to join the presidential run for the roses?
Every indication says "yes." Why the delay? As reported, it is either to prepare responses to predicted attacks or massage his message. Both Republican and Democrat opposition researchers are poring over his Senate record which is stored in 400 boxes at the University of Tennessee's Howard Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy. What have they found?
We've seen mostly a conservative record but also some nuanced answers by Thompson. For example, he is pro-life but will not apply an abortion "litmus test" on judges. While Thompson voted for legislation to ban "partial-birth abortion" and to prohibit federal funding of abortions (except in cases of rape, incest or when the life of the mother is in danger), he also told the conservative Eagle Forum in a 1994 questionnaire, "I do not believe abortion should be criminalized. This battle will be won in the hearts and souls of the American people" (from www.newsmax.com/archives/articles).
The Newsmax article continues: "In a candidate survey the same year for The Tennessean newspaper, Thompson said that states should have the right to impose "reasonable restrictions on abortions such as parental notification . . . The ultimate decision on abortion should be left with the woman and not the government." For more information, including actual statements by Thompson, view http://www.youtube.com/ and type Fred Thompson.
Perhaps, Thompson's conservative supporters may be troubled by this final excerpt from the Newsmax article: "Earlier this month, the Los Angeles Times reported that Thompson was retained by an abortion rights group, the National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Association, to lobby the administration of President George H.W. Bush to ease a regulation that prevented clinics that received federal money from offering any abortion counseling." Thompson may be able to set the record straight via direct meetings with conservative leaders.
Conservative concerns may be answered by Thompson as political posturing given the realities of the Roe v. Wade precedent and future media attacks. Also, upon research, the Washington Post has found Thompson's close connection with trial lawyers, a group which vehemently opposes tort reform, another important GOP issue. Still another concern about Thompson is his "nay" vote on one of two impeachment charges against President Clinton. He was one of a handful of Republican senators that effectively voted to acquit Clinton.
So conservatives should ask for clarity from Thompson on these critical issues. Supporters may argue that if Thompson was completely candid, he could become a bigger target. Perhaps, behind-the-door assurances to key conservative leaders may suffice. To avoid deep disappointment, conservatives should vet this candidate on several fronts. Time is still on his side, as well as the conservative movement.
Thompson leads state polls in Georgia and Virginia, as well as the national preference poll of likely voters and has recently received supportive words from another possible presidential candidate--Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House. As implied in the Newsmax.com article, Newt's horse may stay at the starting gate if his issues are carried by another capable conservative.
Yet, criticism lingers that Thompson did not accomplish much during his eight year stint in the U.S. Senate. Some conservative leaders also claimed that he didn't lead on these issues except for the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform--which both conservative and liberal PACS despise. Newsmax's Ron Kessler also submitted an article recently demonstrating Thompson's lack luster efforts at political campaigning. If Hillary Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee for president, then it would be a take no prisoner type of horse race. Does Thompson really want the job? We soon shall see!
Romney runs and runs
One GOP candidate that has been running hard is former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Romney, according to the Zogby poll, is 3rd behind Giuliani (21%) and Thompson (22%). His 11% puts him at a distant third but ahead of fading McCain (9%). His vigorous campaign style and articulate disposition give him an uphill battle, but a fighting chance. He is second behind Thompson among "very conservative" voters. If Giuliani drops a horse shoe due to his left-of-center political and moral political and personal values, then Romney would be fighting for the largest GOP voting block.
Romney's enduring and vigorous effort has born some fruit. He has tied more recently Rudy Giuliani as GOP frontrunner according to the latest poll by the National Journal's Hotline Website of political insiders (see newsmax.com/archives/2007). Hotline noted that this surge reflects Romney's strength in early caucas and primary states Iowa and New Hampshire.
Will Romney's personal dynamism, proven leadership background (the Olympics in Utah) and budget savviness (in Massachusetts) overcome his conflicting positions--first pro-choice, then pro-life; first pro-gay, now pro-traditional marriage and other issues? The conventional wisdom is that Romney had to position himself as pro-woman and gay rights in order to run credible campaigns in the very blue state of Massachusetts from 1994-2002. Yet isn't he trying to position himself as a conservative to vie for the conservative voters, especially in the South, particularly South Carolina? His recent repositioning, according to Romney, occured in 2004 when he became pro-life and against embryonic stem cell research. But isn't 2004 the year to prepare running for the 2008 presidential election. The http://www.youtube.com/ excerpts of his changing positions are very credible, since you can see Romney, state his positions with conviction, only to change them.
Romney's political convictions may have changed but religious conservatives are troubled with his permanent Mormon religious beliefs. Both concerns may diminish Romney's rising star.
Positively, Romney's numbers have increased gradually, but will they continue to go up if Thompson jumps in the widening run for the roses?
The two apparently are vying for the same conservative constituents; both making the case that he will carry the Reagan mantle. Romney's test is the Thompson juggernaut. Who will carry the social conservatives all the way to the primary finish line and receive the GOP rose?
Both have gravitas but only one will carry the conservative vote. Romney may be the steady and credible sounding conservative; Thompson has a longer and broader conservative track record and is exciting the conservative electorate.
From this vantage point, Thompson looks to be the winner of this neck-to-neck conservative race--only if he jumps in.
Which horse is your choice, if any?
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