Much like Davy Crocket, Jim Bowie and Col. William Travis, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton will make her last stand on similar terrain. After 10 consecutive losses and an uneventful debate performance, Clinton is also facing great odds in the Lone Star state.
Though the polls indicate a dead heat, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama has the “big mo,” mimicking the power of General Santa Anna, the Alamo’s eventual victor. Obama’s momentum seems insurmountable. Former President Bill Clinton, has said that his wife has to win Texas. Can she still win this state and the nomination?
Media prognosticators from left to right are already writing her political obituary: “Hillary Should Get Out Now,” said Jonathan Alter of Newsweek and “Who Will Tell Hillary?” asked Robert Novak of the Chicago Sun Times.
According to Real Clear Politics, it is a statistical tie — Clinton and Obama splitting four current polls. Clinton’s home state, Arkansas, is a close neighbor to Texas, so Clinton’s familiar face may be the one advantage she has left — and it may be enough.
Hillary can still win in one of three ways: 1) a successful last stand in Texas and future wins in a few big states; 2) seating of Michigan and Florida delegates; or 3) in a brokered convention, persuading super delegates to nominate her, thus, snatching the win from the jaws of defeat.
Clinton will need everything from tears to toughness, maternal instincts to meanness to win the next three big states (Texas, Ohio, Penn.) by even slim margins. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, she leads by 8 and 14 percentage points respectively. From these three states, Clinton can win most of 577 combined delegates, which would reshape the delegate race. Currently Obama has at 1,351 and Clinton for 1,262.
Another way of avoiding political ruination for Clinton emanates from the fluxed fate of the Florida and Michigan delegates.
Clinton won both states in questionable circumstances but by wide margins. If those delegates are seated, Clinton’s deficit to Obama would immediately close. A decision on those delegates, however, does not seem likely in the near future.
The Clinton camp would like to see them instated outright, which may happen if the Obama agrees to a compromise.
In any event, if the Clinton machine can reinstate those delegates, the race is once again summarily changed.
Finally, the last and least attractive scenario involves the unique concept of the Democrat Convention’s 796 super delegates. If neither Democrat candidate has the necessary 2,025 delegates by the convention, these super delegates will be the deciding factor.
With the power of the Clinton name within the Democrat Party, many of those super delegates could be swayed Clinton’s direction. Even if Obama goes into the convention with a slight lead in the popular vote and delegate count, Clinton may have the influence to overturn the will of the Democrat electorate and take the nomination.
Of course, that would be the least attractive avenue for winning and would require a major effort to reconcile and heal the party’s divergent interests and interest groups.
Crockett, Bowie and Travis lost at the Alamo during the Lonestar state’s decisive drive for Texas Independence. Hillary has a chance to reverse history by winning in Texas against the likes of Mexican Gen. Santa Anna, the Napoleon of the West. The general she’s fighting — Barack Obama — who is overseeing a new political army, however, is much more polite, polished and dynamic.
The Santa Anna winds seem to be blowing Obama’s way, but Clinton cannot be counted out.
