Jul 18, 2007

Presidential Run for the Roses: The GOP (Part 4)

Who will continue Reagan's conservative race? Thompson or Romney

Leader of the pack: Fred Thompson

As I look at today's news, the presidential horse race is heating up. According to Zogby International, the national preference vote is now led by former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson on the Republican column and U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democrats. Discussion of the Democrats will follow the response of news reports of the Republicans.

Tough, tall Law and Order prosecutor Thompson is now trailing no one. His non-candidate presidential bid is bringing in cash and votes in a noted national preference poll. The Tennessean's eight year U.S. Senate experience, his Watergate background, as well as his acting role on NBC's hit show has conservatives longing for his horse to get in the starting gate. Will he throw in his hat in the ring to join the presidential run for the roses?

Every indication says "yes." Why the delay? As reported, it is either to prepare responses to predicted attacks or massage his message. Both Republican and Democrat opposition researchers are poring over his Senate record which is stored in 400 boxes at the University of Tennessee's Howard Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy. What have they found?

We've seen mostly a conservative record but also some nuanced answers by Thompson. For example, he is pro-life but will not apply an abortion "litmus test" on judges. While Thompson voted for legislation to ban "partial-birth abortion" and to prohibit federal funding of abortions (except in cases of rape, incest or when the life of the mother is in danger), he also told the conservative Eagle Forum in a 1994 questionnaire, "I do not believe abortion should be criminalized. This battle will be won in the hearts and souls of the American people" (from www.newsmax.com/archives/articles).

The Newsmax article continues: "In a candidate survey the same year for The Tennessean newspaper, Thompson said that states should have the right to impose "reasonable restrictions on abortions such as parental notification . . . The ultimate decision on abortion should be left with the woman and not the government." For more information, including actual statements by Thompson, view http://www.youtube.com/ and type Fred Thompson.

Perhaps, Thompson's conservative supporters may be troubled by this final excerpt from the Newsmax article: "Earlier this month, the Los Angeles Times reported that Thompson was retained by an abortion rights group, the National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Association, to lobby the administration of President George H.W. Bush to ease a regulation that prevented clinics that received federal money from offering any abortion counseling." Thompson may be able to set the record straight via direct meetings with conservative leaders.

Conservative concerns may be answered by Thompson as political posturing given the realities of the Roe v. Wade precedent and future media attacks. Also, upon research, the Washington Post has found Thompson's close connection with trial lawyers, a group which vehemently opposes tort reform, another important GOP issue. Still another concern about Thompson is his "nay" vote on one of two impeachment charges against President Clinton. He was one of a handful of Republican senators that effectively voted to acquit Clinton.

So conservatives should ask for clarity from Thompson on these critical issues. Supporters may argue that if Thompson was completely candid, he could become a bigger target. Perhaps, behind-the-door assurances to key conservative leaders may suffice. To avoid deep disappointment, conservatives should vet this candidate on several fronts. Time is still on his side, as well as the conservative movement.

Thompson leads state polls in Georgia and Virginia, as well as the national preference poll of likely voters and has recently received supportive words from another possible presidential candidate--Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House. As implied in the Newsmax.com article, Newt's horse may stay at the starting gate if his issues are carried by another capable conservative.

Yet, criticism lingers that Thompson did not accomplish much during his eight year stint in the U.S. Senate. Some conservative leaders also claimed that he didn't lead on these issues except for the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform--which both conservative and liberal PACS despise. Newsmax's Ron Kessler also submitted an article recently demonstrating Thompson's lack luster efforts at political campaigning. If Hillary Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee for president, then it would be a take no prisoner type of horse race. Does Thompson really want the job? We soon shall see!

Romney runs and runs

One GOP candidate that has been running hard is former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Romney, according to the Zogby poll, is 3rd behind Giuliani (21%) and Thompson (22%). His 11% puts him at a distant third but ahead of fading McCain (9%). His vigorous campaign style and articulate disposition give him an uphill battle, but a fighting chance. He is second behind Thompson among "very conservative" voters. If Giuliani drops a horse shoe due to his left-of-center political and moral political and personal values, then Romney would be fighting for the largest GOP voting block.

Romney's enduring and vigorous effort has born some fruit. He has tied more recently Rudy Giuliani as GOP frontrunner according to the latest poll by the National Journal's Hotline Website of political insiders (see newsmax.com/archives/2007). Hotline noted that this surge reflects Romney's strength in early caucas and primary states Iowa and New Hampshire.

Will Romney's personal dynamism, proven leadership background (the Olympics in Utah) and budget savviness (in Massachusetts) overcome his conflicting positions--first pro-choice, then pro-life; first pro-gay, now pro-traditional marriage and other issues? The conventional wisdom is that Romney had to position himself as pro-woman and gay rights in order to run credible campaigns in the very blue state of Massachusetts from 1994-2002. Yet isn't he trying to position himself as a conservative to vie for the conservative voters, especially in the South, particularly South Carolina? His recent repositioning, according to Romney, occured in 2004 when he became pro-life and against embryonic stem cell research. But isn't 2004 the year to prepare running for the 2008 presidential election. The http://www.youtube.com/ excerpts of his changing positions are very credible, since you can see Romney, state his positions with conviction, only to change them.

Romney's political convictions may have changed but religious conservatives are troubled with his permanent Mormon religious beliefs. Both concerns may diminish Romney's rising star.

Positively, Romney's numbers have increased gradually, but will they continue to go up if Thompson jumps in the widening run for the roses?

The two apparently are vying for the same conservative constituents; both making the case that he will carry the Reagan mantle. Romney's test is the Thompson juggernaut. Who will carry the social conservatives all the way to the primary finish line and receive the GOP rose?

Both have gravitas but only one will carry the conservative vote. Romney may be the steady and credible sounding conservative; Thompson has a longer and broader conservative track record and is exciting the conservative electorate.

From this vantage point, Thompson looks to be the winner of this neck-to-neck conservative race--only if he jumps in.

Which horse is your choice, if any?

Jul 17, 2007

Presidential Run for the Roses: The GOP (Part 3)

Run Rudy Run!?
(For background, please read the previous two blogs, part 1 and 2)

In the Grand Old Party's presidential run for the roses, while U.S. Sen. John McCain's horse is losing steam, who will get the advantage in this presidential Derby? Will it be former mayor Rudolph "Rudy" Giuliani; former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney; the new white knight of conservatives, U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson, R-TN; or, another candidate?

"America's Mayor," as Oprah Winfrey has dubbed Giuliani, has been on top of most national polls since last year. He is seen as the Republican's dragon slayer, homeland defender and the proven savvy spokesman during times of crisis, or does he, too, as McCain does, have a political Archilles heel, a horse shoe that will fall off?

As a big city mayor--none other than NYC--Giuliani handled the hot media debate on issues sucessfully, particularly during 9/11. In contrast, Iowa is retail politics: one-one-one or one-on-small group in the countryside, small farms and small shops. Can he endure small town America? Will he vigorously campaign in the Iowa hinterlands, during the cold caucus nights at the Hawkeye state? This is doable for Giulani as he remains focused.

Giuliani dealt with crime and criminals in NYC and was an articulate spokesman during 9/11, but can he stop Islamic Fascism? There is a vast difference of the two. Yet, dealing with NYC gangs and decades long criminals and criminal families, Giulani has proven more than anyone else (besides president Bush 1 and 2 and Reagan), that he is willing to face the forces of darkness. His background shows victories but also a pullout.

He had the opportunity to defeat Hilary Clinton during her initial bid for New York Senate. Giulani backed out due to prostate cancer. Clinton went on to win handily. Giulani has another opportunity to do what he should have done earlier--defeat Hilary Clinton. His aborted campaign had other, perhaps hidden, reasons, which may point to his Archilles heal.

Giulani, before his NY Senate campaign, was warned by his then wife, to stop, within a year, his involvement with another woman. Apparently, after the one year period ended, Giuliani continued the affair. His wife came out publicly denouncing her husband's adultery. This announcement was followed by the announcement that Giulani had been diagnosed with prostate cancer. Giulani then stopped his NY Senate bid.

To further complicate his moral disposititons, Giulani marched with NYC gay groups for many years while also marching lockstep with abortion rights groups. The "A" issue along with the gay and abortion issues do not sit well with social conservatives.

As more and more social conservatives, the largest voting block in the Republican Party, learn more about Giulani the man, how many will vote for him during the primary, particularly the South Carolina primary and later the in general election. Does he have other scandals yet to be revealed that Democrat opposition researchers will strategically leak to the media? With this moral Archilles heel, can he slay the dragon that will appear after the Democrat primary in 2008? Will their be a horse shoe that will drop during this lengthy presidential run for the roses?

He is seen as a hero to the nation, and particularly Republicans. He has led us through the wilderness of 9/11. In the end, is Giulani a biblical Samson, who led Israel for many years but had a moral weakness which led to his eventual downfall? Or will he be the St. George, saving the Republican village from a fire breathing Democrat dragon?

Your turn. What do you think?
For background, please read the two previous blogs, part 1 and 2.
Next Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and other candidates.

Presidential Run for the Roses: The GOP (Part 2)

McCain's horse losing steam: What happened to media's darling? (For background, see previous blog entitled The GOP (Part 1)

As U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-AZ, tries to fend off the dark horses in the GOP presidential run for the roses, his campaign is imploding. Among many others, his chief fundraiser and communications director have resigned, hoping to go to greener pastures. literally. McCain's campaign is out of green cash. His Straight Talk Express is running out of gas (and gas money). What happened to this tough talking media savvy Vietnam veteran?

McCain's recent birthday bash was quite telling. The invited guests were members of the elite media. These were his darling constituents, broadcasting his every move--in a positive way. He was the Bush basher, the Republican maverick, the conservative who attacked conservatives and conservatism. He has had the backing of Indepedents nationally, particularly in New Hampshire, the first primary state. He had the cash and the best political operatives that money can buy.

McCain had the backing of the Republican establishment in South Carolina, the home of the first Southern primary. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, R-SC, advanced his issues, including immigration. McCain's run for the roses always had an Archilles heel, or a loose horse shoe. That shoe is now falling off.

The Republican and conservatives leaders that he had distanced, sometimes attacked, are the ones who directly vote or influence major groups to vote, not the members of the elite media. Polls are now showing that his strategy has backfired.

Republicans and conservatives, the voting constituency, are not giving money and not acceding to his candidancy during state and national poll surveys. His initiatives, including the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform, his attack on President Bush's intelligence strategy, including the torture issue, his playing both sides of the abortion debate, along with pushing for the guest worker/immigration bill has caught up with him. Even his support for the War on Iraq has angered his media constitutency.

Perhaps, most of all, his media constitutency has embraced their natural allies--left leaning, egalitarian candidates U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-IL and Hilary Clinton, D-NY. McCain is back in New Hampshire to pick up the pieces, starting with the many Independent voters in the state.

In my home state of South Carolina, where McCain has nurtured the Republican party for over eight years, his efforts are not bearing fruit. The fruit is becoming stale, perhaps due to the conservative leaning of this state. His moderate, independent, and insurgency campaign is growing sour in this must-win state.

What about the other candidates, including former mayor Rudolph "Rudy" Giuliani, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and likely candidacy of former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson, R-TN? Will it be McCain at the Republican finish line or one of these other candidates? Catch me next time as I talk about these candidates and the other dark horse candidates in the Presidential Run for the Roses.

What do you think?
(For background, please see previous blog entitled Presidential Run for the Rose: GOP (Part 1)

Jul 12, 2007

Presidential Run for the Roses: The GOP (Part 1)

The Straight Talk Express hits a snag in South Carolina

While visiting my old stomping grounds, Louisville, Kentucky, home of the Kentucky Derby. I thought of the political race that is heating up--the 2008 presidential race.

After a hard horse race, the Derby winner steps up and receives the bouquet of roses, specially made for the occasion, thus the race is called Run for the Roses. Another special race is starting to gain more attention, the presidential race, specially the primary in my current home state of South Carolina.

As a professor in politics, teaching the presidency and the media, South Carolina is known for picking winners. South Carolina is the gateway to the South, that is, the Southern Primary. Historically, South Carolina in 1980 chose Ronald Reagan, who became president. In 1988, South Carolina picked George H.W. Bush over Pat Robertson and Jack Kemp. Bush became president.

Again, in 2000, after a bitter defeat in New Hampshire, George W. Bush came back, winning a crucial victory over John McCain--where else? in South Carolina. George W. became the 43rd president.

Since 2000, John McCain has been courting South Carolina leaders and have been endorsed by many prominent Republicans, starting with U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, R-SC, who has been "driving" the Straighttalk Express for about eight years. Graham needs to deliver for McCain, who may consider him as his vice presidential nominee.

McCain needs to win this state or his hopes will be dashed.

What do you think?